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alecco 13 hours ago [-]
Eventually, yes. But 1) it's not a magic tap on/off, 2) refineries are specialized for specific types of oil, 3) a lot of ships are stuck there, 4) wells and refineries usually take a long time to restart.
Serious oil traders are saying it will take months or even more than a year to get back to normal.
The only thing containing prices at the moment is many exporters sold futures to lock-in prices for the rest of the year (it wasn't market manipulation as many suspected). But once they are sold out we'll have some interesting price discovery.
(LLMs are good at explaining the jargon). Shipping just got 3-4 times more expensive. Not just crude oil, also bulk, chemicals... There are not enough ships and there is not enough bunker diesel - normally costs 400$/t, now 1100$/t
But how? Iran is right next door. They can target any mode of getting oil out of there. Not just the strait of Hormuz but any pipelines that lead away from the region can just as easily be targeted. One Shahed to the pipeline is all it would take.
alecco 12 hours ago [-]
At these higher prices you can safely bet other producers are drilling new wells, adding more infrastructure, and upgrading refineries.
dyauspitr 8 hours ago [-]
That’s not going to replace the sheer volume of the Middle East.
alecco 2 hours ago [-]
Yes it can. It's only 20%. The difference is ME is very cheap to extract relative to other places like shale.
Detrytus 12 hours ago [-]
In theory yes, but in practice those drones would have to take a really long flight over enemy territory giving more opportunities to shoot them down. And it’s not like they are difficult to shoot down, they are cheap crap, their only advantage being that there’s a lot of them
gmerc 10 hours ago [-]
You really haven’t been paying attention to Ukraine. You can launch them from trucks. from boats. You can make them so cheap defense becomes too costly. What people don’t seem to get is that you that much of modern infrastructure is not scalable to an age of war and chaos the US is unleashing in bid to shift power dynamics from economy (which China is winning) to military.
Pipelines have endless vulnerability surface as Ukraine showed and just do the math on trucks vs a super tanker.
10 hours ago [-]
dyauspitr 8 hours ago [-]
As low tech as they are, they fly low, can’t really be detected by radar and you only need one to get through. Pipelines are long and can’t be protected.
senectus1 12 hours ago [-]
all of this is assuming the US and israel will LET this new bypass go unhindered.
jleyank 11 hours ago [-]
Don’t forget the world needs LNG and the stuff made from petrochemicals such as fertilizer. They need to make chem plants as well as refineries to go with drilling new wells and run them harder. Get Venezuela up, but that’s probably O(years).
Is there enough copper and power to get those ev stations up in the us? Cuz now’s their chance.
magicalhippo 10 hours ago [-]
Recently submitted[1] related Bloomberg story:
Strikes on Qatar's LNG Ras Laffan plant Will Reshape the Future of Fossil Gas
strait closed is only applicable for usa ally ships so ur country just needs to be neutral or iran ally.. for american its not applicable bc they have their own oil/venezuela
wat10000 14 hours ago [-]
Tautologically yes. Whatever the world gets is its supply. Depending on how much can be done to bypass the Strait, that supply may diminish substantially. Already has, I suppose.
It would be nice if this was the thing that finally kicked governments into gear to get off our reliance on oil. But I don’t think 20% is quite big enough to make that happen.
bethekidyouwant 12 hours ago [-]
By what banning driving?
10 hours ago [-]
wat10000 9 hours ago [-]
Have you heard of electricity?
atoav 14 hours ago [-]
*Can the world have an American President that for once doesn't start pointless wars to distract from internal scandals?
marssaxman 13 hours ago [-]
It'd be nice if we could take a few years off from having a president at all - just rest, recover, and start to clean up the mess.
jkubicek 11 hours ago [-]
America needs a Snow Leopard. No new features, just bug fixes.
throwaway27448 13 hours ago [-]
> to distract from internal scandals
This is ignoring fifty years of trying to start this war. Even blaming Israel doesn't entirely make sense. A large segment of capital in the US truly wants this war to happen (as foolish as that may seem to rational humans). It is not simply a distraction.
Or to put it another way, the Trump administration is characterized by dozens of scandals of bungled governance, each distracting from the next. Determining which is the "root" thing being distracted from is pointless.
lovich 9 hours ago [-]
Every war in the 21st century that America has entered has been started by a Republican President
the_gastropod 13 hours ago [-]
For once? Didn’t our previous president just clear this cynically low bar?
netsharc 13 hours ago [-]
Ok, so in your genius reality, did Biden start the Russia-Ukrainian war or the Israeli genocide? Or am I just too dumb and interpreting your oh-so-clever sentence wrong?
I'm also curious if you could explain the logic more than "Just so your own research man"...
jkubicek 11 hours ago [-]
I think you’re responding to the wrong comment
ziml77 11 hours ago [-]
You're reading them wrong and I'm not sure what you find clever about the wording.
The bar was a president that doesn't start pointless wars. That's a low bar. Biden cleared said low bar by not starting pointless wars.
the_gastropod 9 hours ago [-]
Yea, other commenters on this thread got it, so think you misunderstood my point: no. Biden did not start any wars as far as I’m aware, which was the point I was trying to make: not only have there existed non-war-starting presidents, our previous president was one of them!
Serious oil traders are saying it will take months or even more than a year to get back to normal.
The only thing containing prices at the moment is many exporters sold futures to lock-in prices for the rest of the year (it wasn't market manipulation as many suspected). But once they are sold out we'll have some interesting price discovery.
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/ICEEUR-BRN1!/forward-cur...
https://www.tradingview.com/symbols/NYMEX-CL1!/forward-curve...
https://nitter.net/ed_fin
(LLMs are good at explaining the jargon). Shipping just got 3-4 times more expensive. Not just crude oil, also bulk, chemicals... There are not enough ships and there is not enough bunker diesel - normally costs 400$/t, now 1100$/t
https://shipandbunker.com/prices/apac/ea/cn-hok-hong-kong
Pipelines have endless vulnerability surface as Ukraine showed and just do the math on trucks vs a super tanker.
Is there enough copper and power to get those ev stations up in the us? Cuz now’s their chance.
Strikes on Qatar's LNG Ras Laffan plant Will Reshape the Future of Fossil Gas
[1]: https://news.ycombinator.com/item?id=47484246
https://hyperfocusinhalifax.substack.com/p/why-arent-oil-pri...
It would be nice if this was the thing that finally kicked governments into gear to get off our reliance on oil. But I don’t think 20% is quite big enough to make that happen.
This is ignoring fifty years of trying to start this war. Even blaming Israel doesn't entirely make sense. A large segment of capital in the US truly wants this war to happen (as foolish as that may seem to rational humans). It is not simply a distraction.
Or to put it another way, the Trump administration is characterized by dozens of scandals of bungled governance, each distracting from the next. Determining which is the "root" thing being distracted from is pointless.
I'm also curious if you could explain the logic more than "Just so your own research man"...
The bar was a president that doesn't start pointless wars. That's a low bar. Biden cleared said low bar by not starting pointless wars.
Many other things pass through the straight besides oil